Every year, the Royal Ascot Festival brings world-class horse racing, unforgettable fashion and plenty of drama, and while most people focus on the favorites, there have been plenty of failed winners over the years. Some of these unlikely winners are the biggest betting shocks ever seen in British horse racing, some of them recent and others part of the festival’s illustrious history.

Here at OddsMonkey we’ll find out what some of the biggest odds winners are, why Royal Ascot is such a shock and what the attendees did Matched Betting Can learn.

Nando Parrado – 2020

The biggest odds-on winner in Royal Ascot history is a staggering 150/1. In 2020, Royal Ascot was held behind closed doors during the pandemic, creating an unusual atmosphere that many believed led to a shock week. There’s no one bigger than Nando Parrado in the Coventry Championship.

The two-year-old, trained by Clive Cox and ridden by Adam Kirby, was sent down at 150/1 after finishing fifth on debut at Newcastle. Few gave him any chance to win as the field was packed with expensive and highly touted teenagers, but he came into the match strong and soared at the end. The result immediately entered Royal Ascot folklore and rewrote the biggest upset of the conference.

Fleshman’s thesis – 2008

Another upset was Flashman’s Papers in the 2008 Windsor Castle Stakes, which had odds of 100/1. Trained by Brian Meehan, the colt outperformed many more advantaged rivals to produce one of the biggest surprises of the modern era.

The two-year event at Royal Ascot is often unpredictable, with many competitors inexperienced and others only making their second start in their careers. “The Fleshman Papers” is a clear case study in this, as The Outsiders bested their competition to become one of the biggest flops in the festival’s history.

Fox Chapel – 1990

Before Nando Parrado and Flashman’s Papers, there was Fox Chapel in 1990, which had odds of 100/1 to take first place. A victory in the Britannia Stakes, the race is often regarded as one of the toughest handicaps of the week, often featuring huge fields and slim margins.

At the time, it was almost unthinkable for a horse to win at Royal Ascot at triple-figure odds, with its elite trainers, top jockeys and well-backed horses. Major upsets are relatively rare compared to regular hurdles, but Fox Chapel changed that perception forever.

Why does Royal Ascot produce so many shocking results?

Despite being home to some of the best horses in the world, Royal Ascot is still a festival that many look forward to value betas it may produce some unlikely winners. Here are some reasons why the Royal Ascot Festival produced such shocking results:

• The size of the field is huge – many Royal Ascot meetings have 20 to 30 runners, which greatly increases unpredictability. Transportation issues may be one of the main reasons why top players perform poorly in these competitions.
• International Races – Royal Ascot is one of the largest races in the world, which means it attracts talent from Europe, America, Australia and Asia. Since horse lines are often difficult to compare, it is difficult to judge how these horses will perform at Royal Ascot.
• Two-Year-Old Races – Juvenile races are one of the most difficult races to analyze because young horses can improve so much compared to older horses. To learn more about horse racing analysis, check out our Horse Racing Betting Guide.
• Market Overreaction – Royal Ascot generates huge betting volumes and the hype affects prices. Horses from strong stables or ridden by superstar jockeys are often overbet, while lesser-known runners tend to have inflated odds.

What can bettors learn?

Royal Ascot is one of the toughest betting weeks of the year, but it also offers different opportunities for the disciplined bettor. Successful bettors can often focus on finding horses whose odds are underestimating their chances, rather than blindly backing the favorites.

Punters can look for:

• Undiscovered two-year-old
• Horses suitable for large show jumping
• International runners ignored by the market
• Powerful drawing or placement angles
• Trainers specializing in Ascot racing

For those who want to learn more about horse racing, our Matched Betting Blog A great place to read about horse racing and sports betting.

OddsMonkey Royal Ascot

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